Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • Italy
  • France
  • Sweden
  • North Macedonia
  • Montenegro
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Czechia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $494,168$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,907$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,009.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,009.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $451,904$ on 2020-11-07

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,328,832$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38,833$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,911.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,911.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,139,623$ on 2020-11-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,174,770$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48,978$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,900.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,900.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,122,827$ on 2020-11-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $902,490$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,063$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,483.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,483.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $532,536$ on 2020-11-07

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,709,773$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,220$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,092.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,092.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,536,134$ on 2020-11-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $146,461$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,112.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(109,112.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,022$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,817.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,817.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $140,439$ on 2020-11-07

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,782$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368,703.7}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 410.4)}}\) (asimptote \(368,703.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,110$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,142.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 155.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,142.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,661$ on 2020-11-07

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,379$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,934.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 239.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,934.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $333$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{930.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 254.4)}}\) (asimptote \(930.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,502$ on 2020-11-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 43%
Czechia recovered 10%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,063$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $710$ on 2020-11-07

Czechia⮸

Population $10,708,981$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $411,220$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,681$ on 2020-11-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $168,782$ on 2020-11-07